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- February 16, 1981BRITAINEmbattled but Unbowed
-
-
- As Britain reels from recession and political turmoil, Thatcher
- soldiers on
-
-
- Even by the rowdy standards of the House of Commons' "cheer and
- jeer" debate, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher was in for a
- bruising confrontation as she rose from the government front
- bench last week to answer hostile opposition challenges about
- the country's unemployment, the worst since the 1930s. Days
- earlier, when she wore a black dress. Labor M.P. William
- Hamilton had pointed a taunting finger at her and inquired
- derisively, "Is she dressed in black because of the unemployment
- figures?" Now she was meticulously turned out in a tailored
- gray suit, a soft white bow at her neck, to face another
- onslaught. In her coolly accented voice, she delivered a
- forceful and familiar message: only sound money and
- competitive industry can bring down inflation and eventually
- create new jobs for Britain.
-
- From the Labor benches jumped M.P. Dennis Skinner, a militant
- leftist. Stabbing at the air, he roared, "Same old story!"
- Thatcher, coming alive, snapped back, "Of course, it's the same
- old story. Truth usually is the same old story." Almost
- menacingly, Skinner leaned toward her and charged, "We'll get
- you out--either in this place or outside it." The threat of
- going outside Parliament to bring down a government brought
- gasps from many M.P.s Thatcher did not flinch. "Rubbish," she
- replied. Then she added, "Indeed, he is the face of the true
- new Labor Party--not of its democrats--but those who have moved
- further and further left, towards the East European type of
- economy." Again came a momentary hush, and then Tory M.P.s broke
- into cheers at this flash of their leader's steel knuckles.
-
- But hardly had Thatcher faced down her parliamentary opponents
- than she was confronted by successive challenges on the
- industrial front. The leader of the gigantic Trades Union
- Congress and the Confederation of British Industry both lodged
- urgent demands that she act promptly to reflate the economy or
- "there'll be nothing left to revive," as one unionist put it.
- Word came of an impending collision between the government and
- union representing 32,000 waterworks employees, who had just
- turned down a proposed 10% pay boost. The chief union
- negotiator for 583,000 civil service workers furiously rejected
- a 6% pay raise offered by Thatcher's government bargainers.
- Said he: "I told them to get stuffed." Through it all, the
- Prime Minister stood fast last week. In a TV appearance from
- No. 10 Downing Street, she had scoffed at past governments that
- "have taken fright and cut and run" when the going got tough.
- Said she: "If I could only get this message over; I will not
- stagger from expedient to expedient."
-
- Few other Britons were quite as unruffled. The country has
- been stumbling ever deeper into the throes of its worst
- recession since the 1930s. Unemployment has climbed to its
- highest mark since the Great Depression: 2.4 million jobless,
- or 10% of the work force, and the grim predictions are that it
- could reach a watershed mark of 3 million before the end of the
- year. As the lines of the jobless have lengthened, businessmen
- as well as trade unionists have despaired. Interest rates have
- hit unprecedented levels, as high as 22% for an ordinary
- consumer. Even the strength of the British pound, a sturdy
- $2.35 because of the North Sea oil bonanza, has not been a
- total blessing; it has hampered exports by raising the prices
- of British goods abroad.
-
- On the political front, the country is being sharply polarized
- between the diehard right, represented by Thatcher's hair-shirt
- conservatism, and the increasingly strident demands for a
- "socialist transformation" issuing from the far-left ranks of
- the Labor Party. The opposition party itself has all but split
- asunder as a result of a ferocious internal struggle between its
- own right and left wings. Late last month Labor changed its
- rules for selection of its leader--a potential Prime
- Minister--giving much more power to the unions, with their huge
- bloc votes, and the left-leaning local committees. The action
- provoked the virtual defection of the leading members of Labor's
- right wing, which in turn could substantially alter the entire
- British political scene. An increasingly leftist-oriented Labor
- Party presents the potential for far-reaching national and
- international changes: a Britain bolting from the European
- Community, for instance, or the alteration of all NATO strategy
- if a Labor government should make good on its professed policy
- of unilateral disarmament and "sending the nukes back to
- Washington." Summing up the uncertainties felt by many Britons,
- Guardian Columnist Peter Jenkins observed: "We have all moved
- into unknown territory, and there is not clear vision of what
- the future will resemble."
-
- At the heart of this political turmoil is the prime ministership
- of Margaret Thatcher, the Joan of Archconservatism. Does she
- have a clear vision of the future? Britons were asking. Is she
- leading the country out of the wilderness, or into it? The
- final verdict is not in, but the British public harbors
- considerable disillusionment with how she has fared to date.
- In recent weeks, the polls have shown her conservative party as
- much as 13 points behind Labor; the Prime Minister herself was
- given a mere 31% approval rating. No angry mobs were taking to
- the streets, no pitchfork militant was yet daubing
- down-with-the-rich slogans on the windshield of the nearest
- industrial executive's Rolls-Royce. Indeed, protest
- demonstrations by the unemployed were limited, and peaceable.
- As workers feared for their jobs, in fact, the number of
- strikes and other labor stoppages fell to a 40-year low. But
- there was no mistaking the public anxiety. With Britain at an
- economic and political crossroads, Thatcher's government is
- facing its severest time of testing.
-
- Americans will be scrutinizing Thatcher with particular
- attention when she visits Washington later this month, because
- she is considered the political pioneer in the application of
- the frugal, budget-cutting policies that the new Reagan
- Administration itself would like to try out on the U.S. economy.
- It is no accident that she and Reagan are often regarded as
- ideological soul mates. Former Republican National Chairman
- Bill Brock, who went to Britain for a look at the Thatcher
- campaign in 1979, was so impressed that he brought video tapes
- of Tory broadcasts back to the U.S. as models for his G.O.P.
- campaign strategists. To Britons, the Reagan campaign was a
- distant echo of Thatcher's, and when he delivered his Inaugural
- Address last month, they heard themes, even phrases, that have
- become familiar litanies of Thatcher's government.
- Understandably, Thatcher expects to get on well with Reagan when
- she arrives at the White House as the first NATO leader to call
- on the new President. Says she: "We share the view that
- democracy works best when government doesn't take over too
- much."
-
- Even with their similar perspectives, there may be marked
- differences in approach and degree. Thatcher, a self-styled
- "conviction politician," obdurately refuses to veer from the
- course she has set for her government. Her British critics,
- many of them in her own party, including former Tory Prime
- Minister Edward Heath, are sounding transatlantic alarms and
- warning Reagan not to follow Thatcher's economic course. One
- of Thatcher's own Cabinet ministers has expressed second
- thoughts. Said he: "If we have any advice to give to President
- Reagan, it is, 'Don't pack your first budget with too many
- campaign promises.'"
-
- Hard-edged and superconfident, Thatcher swept into office 21
- months ago with a handsome 43-seat parliamentary majority from
- an electorate that had soured on the Labor government of James
- Callaghan and was fed up with Britain's intractable unions in
- the bitter winter of 1979. Labor's image as the only party
- capable of dealing with the powerful trade unions was sorely
- damaged when strikes and industrial strife spread across the
- country. Touting the "monetarist" theories of Milton Friedman,
- the conservative American economist, Thatcher won big with
- pledges to cut government spending, reduce income taxes,
- revitalize industry and create a new climate for business. With
- a survival-of-the-fittest philosophy, she warned that outdated,
- unprofitable industries would be allowed to die--but for the
- sake of new and vital ones. She promised Britons that she would
- get government off their backs and give them freedom to make
- their own choices. She called for a renewal of the British
- spirit she had known as a girl growing up over her father's
- grocery store in her Lincolnshire birthplace of Grantham.
-
- In the international arena, she pledged to strengthen Britain's
- military defense and stand up to the Russians. Actually, her
- first successes were scored in foreign policy. She attacked her
- European Community colleagues over the inequity of Britain's
- $2.5 billion share of the E.C. budget, and ultimately succeeded
- in getting it pared by two-thirds. In the summer of 1979, she
- traveled to southern Africa and, under the tutelage of her able
- Foreign Secretary, Lord Carrington, changed her position and
- cleared the way for peace negotiations that ultimately
- transformed Britain's former colony of Rhodesia into independent
- Zimbabwe. She was the most outspoken backer of President
- Carter's hard line against the Soviets following their invasion
- of Afghanistan and his efforts to boycott the Olympics.
-
- Her highest priority, however, was economic--specifically to
- "wring inflation out of the economy." She warned candidly,
- "Things will get worse before they get better," a prediction
- that proved accurate in the extreme. She stressed that, above
- all, if the government practiced discipline and the Friedman
- doctrine of strict control of the money supply. Britain could
- recapture its old place "in the first division among nations."
- In her initial budget, she promptly cut income taxes; from 83%
- to 60% for those earning more than $50,000, and from 33% to 30%
- for those below. To replace the $9.5 billion in lost revenues,
- she raised the value-added tax (VAT), a levy on all but barest
- essentials, to an across-the-board 15%. Public spending in the
- areas of foreign aid, education, housing and municipal services
- was cut; housing alone was reduced $3.5 billion.
-
- Thatcher had one resource that was helping ease the nation's
- financial burden: the North Sea oilfields. They were to make
- Britain self-sufficient in petroleum by the end of Thatcher's
- first 18 months in office. Typically, Thatcher refused to
- distribute the oil at cut rates to British industry, British
- consumers had to pay the full market price.
-
- But, inexorably, the recession affecting the whole
- industrialized West came to be felt more and more painfully, and
- in Britain the promised Thatcher recovery did not begin. By
- last autumn, the public mood had turned sour. When the poor
- year-end statistics were made public, Thatcher was being
- pilloried for what Labor's Denis Healey, former Chancellor of
- the Exchequer, called her "punk monetarism." Said Eric Varley,
- Labor's spokesman on employment matters: "The consequences of
- this doctrinaire obsession are still wreaking havoc in every
- part of the country." Thatcher's own Industry Secretary, Sir
- Keith Joseph, glumly admitted that his government "lost the
- first year," and the Economist magazine, which had supported
- Thatcher's election, characterized her economic experiment as
- "a prescription for electoral suicide."
-
- Britain's economic condition is indeed worse in virtually every
- respect than when Thatcher took office. At the outset, she had
- said it would take 18 months to two years for results to show,
- but that time-table is nearly up and the turnaround is nowhere
- in sight. Inflation, 10% when the conservatives came in, is now
- 15%, though that is a considerable improvement from a high of
- 22% last summer. The gross national product has fallen from
- 1.5% growth in 1978-79 to a negative 3% for 1979-80. Some
- 10,000 businesses went bankrupt, a record. Unemployment climbed
- by a phenomenal 66% in 1980--and 86% since Thatcher took office.
- In the manufacturing regions of the north, 14.8% of the male
- work force is jobless. Meanwhile, the government has been
- unable either to control the money supply or control public
- spending, the two keystones of its monetarist policy. The
- budgetary deficit for fiscal 1980-81 was first forecast at $20
- billion. Now government sources expect the deficit to exceed
- $30 billion, an increase of $7 billion over last year's deficit.
- To compensate, Thatcher and her Cabinet are now talking about
- imposing new taxes. Ironically, it is the private sector--the
- area of her prime concern and source of her strongest support
- in the last election--that is suffering the most.
-
- What went wrong? In initiating Milton Friedman's theories.
- Thatcher seems to have discovered a catch-22. Push interest
- rates to a record high, which she did, and it is private
- enterprise and individuals who have to curtail investment and
- spending. Force noncompetitive businesses to wring out their
- slack and unemployment rises. As workers "go on the dole," the
- nation's welfare costs rise dramatically.
-
- Thus total public spending tended to go up instead of down.
- Just as welfare costs rose, so did government subsidies to
- public-sector industries. Some of the proposals advanced by
- Thatcher simply proved unrealistic, like her plan to cut
- government financing for such ailing nationalized industries as
- British Steel, British Airways and British Leyland, the
- automaker. To have allowed the companies to collapse would have
- meant a million new unemployed, including tens of thousands of
- jobs in supplier companies. Explained Deputy Prime Minister
- William Whitelaw: "In the real world, you cannot destroy your
- steel industry and remain an industrial power of any standing."
-
- Friedman, a research fellow at California's Hoover Institution,
- refuses to acknowledge that his theories are to blame for
- Thatcher's troubles. Calling the Prime Minister "a remarkable
- woman," he says that "unfortunately, actual practice has not
- conformed to policy." Monetary growth increased rather than
- declined, he points out. (At 22.5%, it is more than double the
- target of 7% to 11%.) He criticizes Thatcher's decision to go
- along with a campaign promise to raise civil service salaries
- by 28%, so that they would approach salaries in the private
- sector. Says Friedman: "That shot into a cocked hat the hope
- of cutting down government spending." He also thinks it was a
- mistake to decrease upper-bracket income taxes while increasing
- the value-added tax, which could only add to inflation.
-
- Thatcher admits that things have not gone well and looks to
- more difficulties ahead. "It will be another hard year," she
- told a recent Tory conference, "but I believe that if the
- government sticks--as it will--to its determination to get
- inflation out of the economy, and if the pay settlements this
- winter are reasonable, there is real hope that a year from now
- things will be looking distinctly brighter." referring to the
- pressure for a policy U-turn, she says, "This lady's not for
- turning."
-
- Confrontation, in fact, is her metier, and even to day-to-day
- combat in the highly charged arena at the House of Commons
- stimulates her. Recently she confessed: "The adrenaline flows.
- They really come out fighting at me, and I fight back. I stand
- there and I know. 'Now come on, Maggie, you are wholly on your
- own. No one can help you.' And I love it." Virtually every
- demand of public office seems to agree with her. Thatcher
- looks, if anything, more youthful than when she moved into
- Downing Street. There is little relaxation in her regimen. Her
- staff is awed by her "terrific appetite for work and her energy
- level." Her voice gets husky after particularly heavy weeks, but
- she rarely seems tired. Five hours of sleep are enough, she
- insists. She rises about 6:30 a.m., listens to radio news,
- prepares breakfast--coffee, toast and fruit--for herself and her
- husband of 29 years, Denis Thatcher, 65, a semiretired business
- executive. Their 27-year-old twins are off on their own: Carol
- is a journalist in Australia; Mark, a racing driver whose
- avocation and political gaffes have sometimes been cause for
- concern.
-
- On a typical day. Thatcher walks down one flight of stairs to
- the Prime Minister's study around 9 for an early appointments.
- Twice a week, her hairdresser will have already come and gone
- by then, maintaining the new darker shade of blond she has
- adopted on the recommendation of an image consultant. Lunch,
- if not official, is likely to be a salad brought in by her
- secretary. Dinner is regularly taken at the House of Commons
- with backbenchers, a habit that builds political capital. It
- also saves cooking: the Thatchers have no regular cook. After
- dinner she may have guests for drinks in the family quarters or
- settle down to several hours of paperwork. Says an aide: "Hers
- is a no-nonsense, no-fuss life."
-
- The Thatcher style of leadership "has mellowed a bit," says one
- Cabinet minister with whom she often disagrees sharply.
- However, she still tends to dominate discussions among her inner
- circle, and Cabinet ministers, particularly those who do not
- share her views, grouse about her overlong lectures and lack of
- humor. She does display a thoughtfulness about personal
- situations and an unaffected directness in talking with "little
- people." On the same day that she has purposely discomfited a
- minister, she will stop and have a cup of tea with the Downing
- Street switchboard operators. At a recent Tory conference, a
- 15-year-old lad made a speech that was a great success. When he
- was brought to meet the Prime Minister, she first asked if he had
- called his mother to tell her how the speech went. When he said
- no, she fished out a ten-pence coin from her purse and sent him
- to a telephone.
-
- At the same time, Thatcher is accused of having no real
- compassion for the public at large. Critics claim the 2.4
- million unemployed seem to be statistics to her, rather than
- individuals. When an interviewer recently pressed her about a
- seeming lack of sympathy. Thatcher replied sharply. "It's like
- a nurse looking after an ill patient. Which is the better
- nurse--the one who smothers the patient with sympathy and says,
- 'Never mind, dear, just lie back. I'll look after you.' Or the
- one who says, 'Now, come on. Shake out of it. I know you had
- an operation yesterday. It's time you put your feet to the
- ground and took a few steps.' Which do you think is the better
- nurse?"
-
- That sort of unbending self-reliance, when applied to monetarism
- at the expense of political considerations, has caused deep
- anxiety among many Tory M.P.s who have to suffer the brunt of
- their constituents' discontent over unemployment, bankruptcies
- and shuttered businesses. Indeed, there is already speculation
- about Thatcher's political survival if economic conditions show
- no signs of improvement by next year. Labor M.P. Phillip
- Whitehead cites a British political rule of thumb: "The Labor
- Party always talks about getting rid of its leaders, but never
- does it." How could a coup against a leader with a 43-seat
- majority be brought off? One senior minister sketches a simple
- scenario: "If, after another year to 15 months, there are no
- signs of an upturn in the economy and a reduction in
- unemployment. I would expect a Cabinet consensus to force a
- change of policy. If Thatcher agreed, there need not be any
- change, except in policy. If she disagreed, it would go to a
- vote in the Cabinet, and if she were defeated, she would have
- to go." In such an event, adds the minister, the Tories "would
- have no alternative but to spend their way out of the crisis,
- which could split the Conservatives and possibly bring in
- Labor."
-
- Across the land, unemployment has spawned some demonstrations;
- 50,000 workers turned out in bitter cold for a Labor "Day of
- Protest" on the gray and eerily lifeless docks of Liverpool.
- But there are as yet no serious signs that the social fabric
- cannot stretch with the strain. In the 1960s, British social
- scientists believed there would be riots in the streets if only
- a million people were out of work. Now workingmen sip their pint
- of lager in the pubs and union clubs and calmly discuss the
- bleak prospect of 3 million jobless. "People are bitter, but
- they're adapting so far," says Bruce George, a Labor M.P. from
- a constituency north of Birmingham where unemployment has
- doubled. "The one thing we haven't seen, thank God, is a major
- racial explosion. The easiest people to blame would be the
- immigrants."
-
- At Johnson's Cafe, a wooden shack across the road from the main
- gate of British Leyland's Austin-Morris plant near Oxford, where
- workers can get a sausage, egg and chips lunch for 39 pence (92
- cents), everyone agrees that times are rough. But the young
- tend to disagree with the old about where the fault lies. One
- maintenance worker, who approves of Thatcher's economic policy,
- insists that "the trouble with this country is the unions have
- got too much power." An assembly-line worker who has been at
- the plant for 25 years, and remembers the depression, fumes:
- "We haven't got a government, not as far as the working class
- is concerned!" In Manchester, proud birthplace of the
- Industrial Revolution and once the most dynamic manufacturing
- center in the world, unemployment has doubled in a year, from
- 20,000 to an estimated 40,000. The city is ringed with plant
- after plant full of outdated machinery, operated by sharply
- curtailed work forces. Says Norman Morris, the leader of
- Manchester's city council: "Nearly all of our industry is
- suffering now. This area has tremendous potential, enormous
- expertise and a great desire to push across new frontiers.
- What's lacking is the capital."
-
- At the labor exchange a few blocks from city hall, Frederick
- Holt, 64, emerges jubilant because he has just found a ten-day
- job as a census taker. Unemployed for a year, Holt is
- pessimistic. "All I can see is unemployment going up to 4
- million by 1985. What's going to happen to this great country?"
- Another casualty of the crisis is William Sykes, 41, who was
- a skilled metalworker and shop steward for an engineering firm
- in Manchester that makes industrial gears. The plant was forced
- to lay off more than two-thirds its work force in the past three
- months. Early in December, Sykes, who had been with the firm
- almost 27 years, got a letter saying he had been "selected for
- redundancy." Then, he recalls, "I got another letter next day
- saying, 'Finish up at four o'clock.' And that was it. "He was
- handed a slip of paper as he left, noting his severance pay:
- a lump sum of $9,750 to tide him over until he became eligible
- for unemployment compensation in twelve weeks. Married with one
- child, he can then collect $82.37 a week. Trying to calculate
- how he will manage mortgage payments, he shook his head
- morosely, "It's been a big jolt, what's happened."
-
- The main reason for the relatively stoical mood with which
- Britons are taking the country's economic troubles is the
- elaborate social security system. A complicated infrastructure
- of welfare benefits, instituted by Clement Attlee's Labor
- government in 1945, cushions most families from real hunger or
- homelessness. In addition to severance pay and unemployment
- benefits, most workers with children are entitled to an income
- tax rebate, a rent rebate on public housing, and free milk and
- lunches at school.
-
- However, Historian Asa Briggs, provost of Worcester College,
- Oxford, warns that "just because people are quiet now does not
- mean there will not be all-out trouble in the future." Lord
- Briggs believes that the era of rising expectations, in which
- the standard of living was expected to improve every year, is
- over, and the realization of this could lead to a leftist
- backlash. Says he: "Politics is all about being a little
- better off. If you can't have that, people may go in for wilder
- objectives like a real redistribution of income."
-
- To judge from the increase in the Labor Party's popularity in
- the polls, some of the backlash may be under way. What better
- issue is there than hard times for a party that has
- traditionally been the champion of the worker? But Labor,
- caught in the throes of the worst internal split in its 80-year
- history, is hardly in a position to exploit it. Labor, in fact,
- seems in mortal danger of committing political suicide. On the
- one side is a noisy, growing claque of radical leftists, given
- to raising clenched fists and shouting Trotskyite slogans, who
- are maneuvering to capture the levers of party power. On the
- other is a handful of rising and ambitious M.P.s, accustomed to
- the prerogatives of Westminster corridors, who are threatening
- to bolt Labor and form a new centrist party.
-
- These ideological divisions in the Labor Party are not new, but
- in the past the two sides have managed to coexist in dynamic
- tandem. The party's center-right dominated the real sources of
- power, the Commons and the Cabinet, where national policies are
- forged. The left, galvanized by the brilliant oratory of the
- late Aneurin Bevan, pursued its socialist goals through the
- giant trade unions. But the new left is no longer content with
- a passive role. When Callaghan resigned as Labor Party leader
- last fall, the left began to move in earnest to bring in one of
- its own. To stave off a party split in the fight for
- leadership, the M.P.s chose Michael Foot, 67, an amiable,
- cultivated libertarian socialist in the old mode, with a
- reputation as a peacemaker.
-
- The party had also adopted what to its right wing were two
- impossible positions: withdrawal of Britain from the European
- Community and a call for unilateral nuclear disarmament.
- Although he has long favored both positions, Foot sought to
- reassure the dissidents and pleaded with them to stay in the
- Labor fold. But then came a special one-day party conference
- in the London suburb of Wembley late last month to consider a
- rules change for choosing a party leader in the future. In the
- past, the party's mostly moderate members of Parliament held the
- exclusive right to choose the party leader. At the urging of
- the left, the party established an electoral college in which
- the combined power of the unions and the leftist constituency
- committees could outvote the establishment M.P.s.
-
- Within hours, the right-wingers announced the formation of a
- new "Council for Social Democracy" as a prelude to forming a new
- political party. A trio of former Cabinet ministers, Shirley
- Williams, David Owen and William Rodgers--immediately dubbed
- "The Gang of Three"--were quickly joined by a fourth: former
- Deputy Party Leader Roy Jenkins, back from four years as
- president of the European Commission. They have appealed to
- other Laborites to join them. The acrimony between victorious
- leftists and the rightists was demonstrated at the next meeting
- of the national executive committee. Foot wheeled on Williams,
- "You had better make your mind up--if you want to join another
- party, it is quite intolerable that you should sit here." Tony
- Benn, the suave standardbearer of the radical left, was even
- more virulent. He shouted at Williams: "If you are plotting
- to form a new party, you cannot sit here in the highest councils
- of Labor with all access to party documents available to you!"
-
- The party split, if it comes finally and formally to that, would
- not cleave the party down the middle but break off and
- influential splinter, make up mostly of "Oxbridge" (Oxford and
- Cambridge) educated, middle-class M.P.s. Tweaking their
- somewhat elitist image, the Guardian ran a cartoon about the
- hypothetical problem the dissidents would have when they met to
- choose a leader: "...They could always have a wine-tasting
- competition." Last week five moderate trade unions joined to
- declare they would fight to overturn the rules change at the
- next party conference. Deputy Party Leader Denis Healey,
- borrowing a phrase from Hugh Gaitskell's fight against the left
- in 1961, vowed to "fight, fight and fight again."
-
- Meanwhile, Liberal Party Leader David Steel, the most popular
- such figure in the country at the moment, with a 63% approval
- rating, told the disaffected Laborites to "stop dithering" and
- form a new party. The Liberals, who have never held power,
- usually poll between 14% and 18% in general elections. Steel
- is eager to cooperate in an alliance with a potential Social
- Democratic party that could bring his own group into a bona fide
- governing coalition. Several new polls indicated that such a
- centrist alliance could win 38% to 40 % of the vote, and even
- some disenchanted Tories talked of signing on. But few
- political analysts believed any such alliance could score
- heavily against the long-standing organizations of the
- conservatives and Labor when the next election comes some time
- before the spring of 1984. Says University of London Professor
- Esmond Wright: "The alliance hasn't a cat's chance, and that's
- a pity, because that's where the country is."
-
- Many British intellectuals see this as a pivotal moment in the
- country's political history. Certainly, the influence of the
- new left, both inside and outside the Labor Party, is being
- strongly felt. The universities are full of noisy protesters.
- "A pacifist is a chap shouting at you when you're trying to
- speak," sighs an official spokesman on nuclear weapons policy.
- An antinuclear lobby is growing larger and more vocal as
- bearded young militants in duffel coats and girls with CND
- (Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament) pins over their hearts
- express hostility to having U.S. bases in Britain, which would
- commit the country to war in a nuclear exchange. They also
- often oppose NATO as a capitalist prop. This upsurge of
- pacifism with an anti-American edge might have been expected in
- the twilight of the Viet Nam War, but why now, when America's
- reputation under Jimmy Carter has been that of a weak superpower
- with a strong human rights policy?
-
- One reason, believes Christoph Bertram, the director of the
- International Institute for Strategic Studies, is simply
- frustration over the economy. Says Bertram: "When the
- government has finished administering its bitter
- medicine--whether it works or not--this will be a different
- country. My fear is that it's going to be a country that is
- more anti-American, more anti-European, more insular." Bertram
- contends that left-wing moralism and pacifism have traditionally
- played a role in British politics. But now "moralism has
- combined with the fear that nuclear weapons might actually be
- used. This has tended to blur the distinction, so vital for
- the nuclear age, between deterrence and actual warfare.
-
- Certainly the economic crisis has driven home the realization
- that Britain is going to have to make some hard choices about
- its defense commitments. M.P. Bruce George, a member of the
- Commons Select Committee on Defense, says there is no way
- Britain can meet its varied defense commitments and pay for the
- proposed $12 billion Trident missile program, which would allow
- Britain to maintain an independent nuclear deterrent through the
- end of the century. Thatcher's position on Trident is clear:
- she will not cancel it. Nonetheless, her government is facing
- severe budgetary problems in maintaining a defense spending
- program that represents just over 5% of its G.N.P. As the
- economic crisis intensifies, so will the debate over defense--
- and the country's priorities.
-
- North Sea oil has bought Britain some precious time in which to
- put its economic house in order. It is Thatcher's ambition--and
- almost religious determination--to seize this unique moment to
- transform Britain's economy in order that it may survive over
- the long term, with or without oil. Until now, she has
- concentrated on the radical surgery of cutting away the
- deadwood of ailing industries. But the signs are that, like the
- stern nurse she is fond of quoting, she soon will have to turn
- her attention to getting the sick patient back on its feet, to
- move from surgery to rehabilitation.
-
- Her conservative government, with its big majority, seems
- safely ensconced until 1984, in part because Labor has not been
- able to mobilize a following that can truly bring it down before
- then. Michael Foot talks of legions of Britons taking to the
- streets in outrage, determined to topple the "criminal" Thatcher
- government. But instead his own party is tearing itself
- asunder, giving Thatcher a golden year virtually free of serious
- political fears. It may just be the piece of luck she needs to
- get through this perilous period in which she is struggling to
- bring her monetarist equation into balance. If she fails, she
- will have to alter course sharply or bow out. If she succeeds,
- she will have administered much-needed therapy to the Britain
- she believes in--and she will have written quite a chapter for
- the political textbooks.
-
-